TRANSIT NEEDS SYNTHESIS REPORT

Category of Need and Source

Amounts Reported in Studies

Amounts in Projected FY 2003 Dollars

Year of Study

Annual Average (Billions)

FY 2004 - FY 2009 Total (Billions)

Annual Average (Billions)

FY 2004 - FY 2009 Total (Billions)

2001

11.57

69.40

12.38

74.30

2000

5.37

32.21

6.26

37.52

2000

6.55

39.28

7.43

44.56

2001

6.12

36.70

6.46

38.75

2000

0.05

0.30

0.06

0.37

2003

2.80

16.80

2.80

16.80

2003

6.75

40.51

6.75

40.51

---

39.21

235.20

42.14

252.81

Two amounts are reported for average annual need and for six-year total need. The first pair of amounts are dollars as reported in or estimated from each source. The second pair of amounts are the dollars reported in each study inflated to FY 2003 dollars. Consumer price index values used to project FY 2003 dollars are taken from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2002-2011, Congressional Budget Office, January 2001. The procedures followed to arrive at each of these amounts are described in the following sections.

Also reported for comparison, on Page 7, are need levels derived from expanding information presented in the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) 1999 Conditions and Performance (C&P) report, May 2000.

The Federal Transit Administration submits annually to Congress an Annual Report on New Starts. The FY 2002 Annual Report on New Starts, May 2001, and Supplemental Report on New Starts, December 2001, provide extensive funding and needs data for projects with Full Funding Grant Agreements and in Final Design or Preliminary Engineering. Limited detail is provided for other authorized projects and projects that are not authorized but have received appropriations during the TEA 21 period. Table 2 reports detailed needs for the 75 projects that are in Preliminary Engineering or a higher status in those reports and less detailed estimated needs for 80 additional projects not yet in Preliminary Engineering but which have received appropriations during the TEA 21 period. The total funds needed to meet the full cost of all projects that have received some appropriations is estimated to be $83.7 billion. An estimated $14.4 billion of that need has already been appropriated by the federal government or made available by state and local governments leaving an unmet need of $69.4 billion.

For purposes of this report all projects that have received appropriations are anticipated to be ready for full funding from FY 2004 through FY 2009. Although additional funds will be made available in FY 2003 appropriations, it can be anticipated that additional projects will advance to the stage at which they need funding. The amount of funds needed for projects not yet in Preliminary Engineering is estimated from the average needs of those projects for which cost data are reported.

APTA estimated funding needs for all known new start projects in "Estimation of Long-Term New Start Program Needs," April 2000. That estimation was based on data reported in the FY 2001 Annual Report on New Starts, March 2000, and additional projects reported in APTA's 1999 Transit Fixed Guideway Inventory, October 1999. The APTA report included 265 projects not listed in the FTA FY 2001 Annual Report on New Starts. The total long-term new start need for all identifiable projects, excluding those with insufficient data to make estimates, was $147.5 billion. Approximately $10 billion of this amount had already been provided leaving a net need in excess of $137.5 billion. In preparation of that estimate, no projects were included that did not have a minimal amount of information defining project size by number of stations or miles of route. Had further information been available, the estimate would have been greater. The estimate used as the primary value in this report, however, included an estimate for all projects included in the parameters of that estimate.

The Federal Transit Administration is in the process of conducting a thorough survey of rail modernization needs. The last survey was the Rail Modernization Study published in April 1987. That study found a rail modernization need of $17.9 billion in 1983 dollars which inflates to $33.6 billion in projected 2003 dollars. The 1987 report included transit operators in only 13 urbanized areas or subareas whereas in FY 2002 fixed guideway modernization funds were allocated to transit operators in 52 urbanized areas or subareas.

Table 2: New Starts Projects Reported in FY 2002 Annual Report on New Starts as of November 2000

Status of Project

Number of Projects

Total Funding Needs for TEA 21 Authorized or Appropriated New Starts Projects (Millions of Dollars)

Funds Already Available by FY 2002 and Remaining New Starts Funding Needs (Millions of Dollars)

Federal Section 5309 Funds

Other Federal Funds

State and Local Funds

Total Funds

Funds Made Available (a)

Remaining Needs

Section 5309 Appro-priations

Estimated Total All Sources

(b)

Section 5309 Federal Funds

Estimated Total All Sources

(b)

28

8,453.2

1,823.9

7,300.7

17,577.7

4,980.0

10,345.5

3,473.1

7,232.2

9

1,456.0

167.4

1,458.5

3,081.9

244.4

517.4

1,213.6

2,564.5

4

129.4

21.5

55.4

206.3

38.7

61.8

90.7

144.5

27

7,691.3

930.3

6,880.1

15,501.6

503.2

1,014.2

7,188.1

14,487.4

7

2,103.4

311.8

1,997.2

4,412.4

60.7

127.4

2,042.7

4,285.0

75

19,833.2

3,254.9

17,691.8

40,779.9

5,827.2

12,066.3

14,008.1

28,713.7

65

16,962.6

(b)

2,783.8

(b)

15,131.2

(b)

34,877.6

(b)

369.0

2,000.0

(b)

16,593.7

(b)

32,877.6

(b)

15

3,914.5

(b)

642.4

(b)

3,491.8

(b)

8,048.7

(b)

68.5

300.0

(b)

3,846.0

(b)

7,748.7

(b)

155

(b)

(b)

(b)

(b)

6,264.6

(b)

(b)

(b)

53

13,831.1

(b)

2,269.8

(b)

12,337.7

(b)

28,438.6

(b)

0.0

500.0

(b)

13,831.1

(b)

27,938.6

(b)

208

(b)

(b)

(b)

(b)

6,264.6

(b)

(b)

(b)

(a) Includes FY 2002 appropriations.

(b) Estimated by APTA.

(c) As of August 2001.

The FTA's 1999 Conditions and Performance Report, more throughly described in the next section, reports needs in categories that can be aggregated to estimate a rail modernization need figure. Total rail needs to improve conditions and improve performance for replacement and rehabilitation of vehicles and non-vehicle assets is $5.37 billion per year in 1997 dollars which inflate to $6.26 billion per year in projected 2003 dollars. For six years the need is therefore $32.21 billion in 1997 dollars and $37.52 in projected 2003 dollars. These amounts are included in summary Table 1.

APTA's "Projecting Bus Capital Investment Needs", May 2000, estimated total bus capital needs for all purposes of $39.3 billion from FY 2004 through FY 2009. The estimate was made in 1998/1999 dollars. Inflated to 2003 dollars, annual needs are $7.4 billion and six-year needs are $44.6 billion. Needs by category are shown on Table 3.

Needs by category are estimated as follows:

Replacement Buses and Vans for Current Fleet: The entire U.S. bus and van fleet is estimated to be 107,540 vehicles as reported in the APTA 2000 Public Transportation Fact Book, March 2000. The proportion of the fleet in each of six vehicle size categories (large buses 51' and longer, large buses 38' to 50', large buses 33' to 38', medium buses 28' to 32', small buses and vans 21' to 27', and vans 20' or shorter) and the average price for vehicles in those size groups is taken from the APTA 1999 Transit Vehicle Data Book, May 1999. Economic service life for each vehicle group is taken from Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Circular FTA C 9300.1, Capital Program: Grant Application Instructions, October 2001. The number of vehicles that reach their economic age each year in each category is then determined and multiplied by the average price for vehicles in that group.

New Buses and Vans for Expansion at 4% per Year: The 4 percent per year expansion is set for illustration purposes; this rate is not an APTA policy.

Table 3: Bus and Bus Equipment Funding Needs from FY 2004 through FY 2009

(1998/1999 Dollars, No Adjustment for Inflation)

Need Category

Average Annual Amount

(Millions of Dollars)

Six-Year Total

(Millions of Dollars)

2,254.3

13,525.6

1,040.2

6,241.5

4.0

23.8

730.5

4,383.1

2,516.9

15,101.3

6,545.9

39,275.3

Replacement Buses and Vans for Expansion Vehicles: These are replacements for new expansion vehicles that have exceeded their economic lives, with the expansion beginning in FY 2000 in this model. Only new expansion small buses and vans will have exceeded their economic lives by FY 2009 in this model.

Maintenance Facility Needs and Bus Other Needs: These needs are estimated from historic federal funding ratios applied to estimated vehicle needs from FY 1991 through FY 1999, "Bus Purchases" was 50.4 percent of all federal funding for buses, bus "Maintenance Facilities" was 11.2 percent, and "Bus Other" was 38.4 percent. The amounts for Maintenance Facility Needs and Bus Other Needs on Table 2 are estimated by applying these proportions to the amounts estimated for replacement and expansion vehicles.

The APTA Rail Transit CEOs Subcommittee conducted a survey of rail transit systems in the Fall of 2001. They asked respondents to estimate their needs for major capital investment in additional fixed guideway transit capacity to meet existing capacity needs and to accommodate expected future demands. No time limit was included in the question but needs are viewed as current or short-term, not long-term, needs. Responses were received from 14 agencies which provide 64 percent of all rail transit service measured by vehicle miles operated. The respondents reported an aggregate need of $23.4 billion. Expanded for non-participating systems, the total need would be $36.7 billion. Inflated to 2003 dollars the average annual need is $6.5 billion and the six-year need $38.8 billion.

The determination of whether a funding need is for core capacity, fixed-guideway modernization, or new start funds was made by the responding transit agency. In some cases the traffic on rail lines has reached such proportions as to exceed the potential capacity increase of an existing line, thus an alternative new line in the corridor is needed to alleviate congestion. It is uncertain whether responding agencies included those new lines in core capacity or consider them to be new starts. This estimate should, therefore, be considered a low estimate.

Formula funding for urbanized areas with populations less than 200,000 is calculated only from population and population density data, service factors are not a part of the formula. Because of this, some small UZAs receive smaller apportionments than they would receive if service factors were included in their formula in the same way that they are included for larger UZAs. The FTA The Urbanized Area Formula Program and the Needs of Small Transit Intensive Cities, September 2000, measured this discrepancy.

The report noted that "no explicit needs assessment is made in allocating formula funding among urbanized areas. Instead, the formula factors used can be viewed as surrogates for the basic transit needs of local communities." (footnote, Page 3) The FTA identified 20 small urbanized areas that met at least four of eight criteria for small transit incentive cities. If small UZA funds had been distributed using service factors as well as demographic factors in the same manner that funds are distributed for larger urbanized areas, these 20 areas would have received an additional $26.2 million in the FY 2000 apportionment. If the 20 areas received the same proportion increase of the FY 2003 guaranteed funding level for urbanized area formula funds, their apportionment would increase $33.6 million.

A total of 104 small urbanized areas would have received an increase in funding if funds were distributed by a service and population formula rather than only a population formula in FY 2000. The gain for those areas would have been $49.2 million. Adjusted to the level of FY 2003 guaranteed appropriation levels, the increase would have been $61.1 million.

The Community Transportation of America's Full Steam Ahead for Reauthorization, July/August 2001, presents a comprehensive reauthorization proposal for transit funding based on a projection of anticipated long-term transit funding needs. Funding needs for several of the categories included in the proposal are included in needs studies reported above. The proposal, however, calls for funding increases for small urbanized areas and rural areas above the levels included above. For the six-year reauthorization period, the CTAA proposes $8.4 billion total funding for small urbanized areas and $8.4 billion total funding for rural areas. The proposed funding levels are for federal funds only, hence total funding and total need would be greater than this amount. The methodology used to arrive at the funding and supporting needs levels is not described in the report.

Several other uses that are eligible for federal funding are not included in the needs summary presented on Table 1 because they have not been estimated in existing studies. These needs include funding for preventive maintenance, planning, and national research and training. Minimum values for some of these programs can be estimated from current federal spending levels.

Table 4: Needs Estimates Based on Current Federal Spending and Appropriations

Program

FY 2000 Federal Obligations

(Millions)

FY 2003 Guaranteed Federal Funding

(Millions)

Estimated Needs, See Text

Average Annual

(Millions)

Six-Year Total

(Millions)

703.8

---

6,112.8

36,676.8

16.2

---

22.0

132.0

60.1

150.0

300.0

1,800.0

167.8

73.0

228.0

1,368.0

---

55.0

89.0

534.0

---

---

6,751.8

40,510.8

Preventive Maintenance: Preventive maintenance is an eligible use of federal capital funds for any maintenance purpose. Total transit expenditures for maintenance, both vehicle and non-vehicle in 1999 were $5,648.9 million. Increased to 2003 levels based on the anticipated growth in the Consumer Price Index, preventive maintenance expenditures would be $6,347 million. This increase does not account for any increase in transit service. Reduced for duplication with rural costs included in the CAA estimate above, the remaining preventive maintenance need would be $6,112.8 annually.

ADA Complementary Paratransit Service: Federal capital funds are eligible, under certain limitations, to be used for complementary paratransit service to meet the requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). In 2000, the FTA obligated $16.2 million for this purpose. Expanding this amount for inflation and to account for the 80 percent federal and 20 percent local matching ratio would produce a need of $22 million in projected 2003 dollars.

Job Access/Reverse Commute: The Job Access and Reverse Commute program has a guaranteed authorization of $150 million in FY 2003. Because grants from this program require a 50 percent local match, the total program level from all sources in FY 2003 would be $300 million. The projected program level in FY 2003 is used as a surrogate for need on Table 4.

Planning: Federal grants for planning uses from all programs including both formula funds and planning funds were $167.8 million in FY 2000. Adjusted for inflation to 2003 and increased to include the local matching share, the amount becomes $228 million. This projected level is used as a surrogate for need on Table 4.

Research: The guaranteed authorization for research, including University Transportation Centers, in FY 2003 is $55 million, 18 percent less than the $67.4 million appropriated for these purposes in FY 1992. If the amount appropriated in FY 1992 were adjusted for inflation, its value in 2003 would be $89.9 million. An additional $34 million in non-guaranteed funds are authorized for these programs in FY 2003 bringing the total authorization to $89.0 million. This amount is used as a surrogate for need in Table 4.

The sum of these needs is $6,751.8 million per year, with a six-year total of 40,510.8 million.

The U.S. Department of Transportation 1999 Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and Performance (C&P), May 2000, estimates an annual average transit need for the twenty-year period 1998-2017. The estimated need is for all capital purposes including funds from all levels of government. Needs are projected in 1997 dollars for four scenarios with the assumption of an annual average growth in ridership of 1.9 percent. The highest category of need is to improve conditions and improve performance of transit systems. The reported need for that category with a 1.9 percent ridership growth is $16.0 billion per year in 1997 dollars

Data are also provided in the report that allow derivation of formulas to estimate needs at higher levels of ridership growth. At 4.5 percent annual ridership growth, the approximate average of the past four years, the annual funding need to improve conditions and improve performance is $23.4 billion annually, or $140.4 billion for six years in 1997 dollars. Inflated to 2003 dollars the annual need is $27.3 billion and the six-year need is $164.1 billion. The procedure used to derive this estimate is presented in detail in APTA's "Summary of Transit Funding Needs as Reported in 1999 Status of the Nation's Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and Performance," December 5, 2000.

Table 5 shows C&P cost estimates by categories similar to existing transit funding categories. The first column of needs reports the actual amounts in the C&P report in 1997 dollars with a ridership increase of 1.9 percent per year; the second column of data reports needs estimated by APTA based on C&P data in 1997 dollars with a ridership increase of 4.5 percent per year; and the final column inflates amounts for the 4.5 percent ridership growth to 2003 dollars.

Table 5: 1999 Conditions and Performance, Improve Conditions and Improve

Performance Needs Assigned to Program Categories (Millions of Dollars)

Need Category

Cost Reported in

1999 Conditions and Performance (a)

Cost with 4.5 Percent Annual Passenger Trip Increase (b)

Cost with 4.5 percent Growth Inflated to FY 2003 Dollars (c)

2,445

3,576

4,166

1,548

2,264

2,638

5,639

8,247

9,609

5,916

8,652

10,081

298

436

508

203

297

346

16,049

23,472

27,347